Looking behind the birdies and bogeys

By Neville Idour

With so many New Zealanders plying their golfing skills on various tours around the globe I find it interesting to look at the performances of probably the three most successful currently, using a rugby analogy by South Africa’s successful coach Rassie Erasmus.

South Africa lost to the All Blacks in the first round of pool play at the Rugby World Cup and Erasmus made the prophetic comment that defence would win the World Cup. 

It was an ominous prediction the AB’s had clearly not considered. We know what happened. 

South Africa proceeded to win the three knockout games by virtually playing no attacking rugby. Brute force and an incessant game of high kicks and smothering defence did the trick.

So how does that analogy relate to golf and Lydia Ko, Danny Lee and Ryan Fox? 

Well I assume we can say an attacking game is the ability to score birdies and eagles. Whereas a defensive game would be the ability to minimise bogeys and worse or, put it another way, be very good at course management and avoiding trouble on the more difficult holes. 

So how do the aforementioned trio of New Zealanders fare?

When it comes to gaining strokes they all do very well, although Lydia is not where she was three years ago. She can still score well on occasions such as at the recent Japan Toto Classic. 

After scoring seven birdies in round one she was second, however her total of 11 birdies in the three rounds was offset by seven bogeys and one double bogey, which saw her fall way down into a mid-field finish. She still rated 19th in 2019 for rounds in the 60s. But with her world ranking double that at around 40th, it is clearly the defensive game that has faltered.

Danny Lee has made strides with his driving distances on the PGA Tour in the last two years. A subtle change in his swing involving principally his foot movement has allowed him to generate more speed through the ball. 

The result, his average of 290.6 yards two years ago ranked him 148th. Last year it was 301.4 yards (42nd). Now his average 324 yards ranks him among the elite drivers in seventh. 

This has clearly had some bearing on his excellent start to the 2019-20 season, including a second, and his card for 2020-21 is already sealed.

Lee has always been a prolific scorer in strokes gained, in one season ranking second. However his ability to have bad patches of dropped shots has prevented him, perhaps, from fully realising his potential. 

It appears this year will be a good one although the Mayakoba Classic where he led after a brilliant nine-under first round, flattered to deceive.

A disastrous final round back nine where he dropped an inexplicable eight shots saw him plummet down the leaderboard. 

Fatigue after a 36-hole day may have played a part. Overall, Danny gained 21 shots (top 10) and dropped 13. So it seems that if he can brush up his defence we may see Danny regularly on the leaderboards as he has been so far this season.

Similarly, Ryan Fox has made a huge impression on the European Tour with fellow players and commentators with his prodigious strength and length. He too, often matches top five finishers in shots gained, although finishing well behind them. 

A good example was the end of season Turkish Open where he gained 26 shots, equal to the winner Tyrell Hatton. Kurt Kitayama was the only player of the six in the playoff with 27 shots gained, to better Fox who finished some 20 places behind the six. The difference was the 13 shots dropped by Fox.

So what can we make of all of this? Firstly, golf is a game of millimetres — off the club face and between the ears. Probably one of the most difficult on the planet. 

Secondly, the line between a top 10 player and the 10 hundred places below is a fine one. Clearly our best professionals are always on the brink of taking the next step. 

Perhaps the 2020 year will see Lydia find her consistent mojo again, Lee fully realise his latent potential and Fox find the consistency that would see him break into the top echelon.

Add to this, who will lead the next echelon of New Zealanders making their mark on the world scene?

Could it be Denzel Iremia, who has already notched some impressive efforts in Japan and Australia? Will Daniel Hillier be able to take his superb amateur record forward to make a mark on the pro scene? 

No doubt 2020 will provide some answers and hopefully successful, exciting golf for the players and for us followers.